Consumers seeking the ‘exceptional' contribute to rise in ‘top tier restaurants'

Simon Stenning, founder of analyst FutureFoodservice, said the change reflected wider economic conditions.

"We forecast a growing, and continuing, polarisation between ‘value-driven social refuelling', and ‘experiential, premiumised dining' with consumers severely squeezed during the whole of this year, and into the first half of 2024," he said.

"This polarisation refers to cheaper, faster food appealing most of the time, with dining occasions becoming less frequent, but bigger, more treating occasions, with expectations rising in line with pricing.

"In relation specifically to Harden's analysis, we are seeing a rise in the number of better-quality restaurants, which is reflected in the growing number of Michelin-starred venues (+36% over the past 12 years), but that this increased quality comes at a cost. However, consumers do have [these restaurants] on bucket lists and there is strong desire for these experiences, especially as the better-off and returning tourists have not been so affected by increasing inflationary pressures and are not changing behaviours."

Hardens research revealed that restaurants charging more than £100-a-head have seen average price increases of 10.7% in London and 14.7% outside London.

Ben Floyd, director of Lumiere Consultancy, agreed that consumer expectations had risen as restaurants struggled with inflation and cost pressures.

He said: "I think the costs of ingredients, labour and utilities has had a bearing on the increases in prices across the board in hospitality, while perhaps the shift or evolution in dining is based around people wanting to pay for a more exceptional experience.

"We saw a trend post-covid of restaurant interiors and experiences becoming much more important to the consumer as visiting restaurants became a real event again after years of lockdown. This can be seen both in terms of populist restaurants with flash interiors and high-end Michelin-starred restaurants."

Peter Harden, editor and co-founder of the Harden's guides, said: "It is tempting to conclude that the capital is becoming a playground for what used to be called ‘the jet set'. But historically one of the striking features of the London restaurant scene has been its lack of a top tier of splurgy, expensive destinations such as those that have long characterised top-end dining in Paris and Tokyo. Perhaps it is perverse to complain if London can now hold its own internationally."

Harden said the evolution of the top-tier of the country's dining scene was creating entry points for new operators.

He added: "The top end experience has changed completely since we started doing our guide… Time was, if you wanted to open a top restaurant, you needed to take on quite a large lease. Whereas these restaurants can occupy smaller, more affordable sites. Obviously, nobody's going to be wandering in off the street to have that kind of experience and it almost adds to the mystique to have a spiral staircase or go into an attic or whatever, [the restaurant] doesn't have to be a traditional format.

"You don't need that many people flying first class to make an awful lot of money off them. I think we are seeing people adjust their offerings to take advantage of that fact."

Image: Shutterstock